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In the second quarter, PGY delivered a robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 30% year over year to a record $326 million. This was driven by a rise in revenues from fees. We believe the company to have recorded a similar performance this time. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $339 million, which implies a 31.9% year-over-year improvement.
In the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 62 cents. The estimate indicates 40.9% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pagaya does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 23.6%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Key Q3 Estimates for Pagaya
Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenue from fees is expected to have improved in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $330 million, indicating a 32.5% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.84 billion implies growth of 20.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects third-quarter 2025 network volume between $2.75 billion and $2.95 billion.
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the quarter.
Management expects total revenues and other income of $330-$350 million.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $90 million and $100 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $10 million and $20 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
Per our proven model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Pagaya will be able to beat earnings estimates this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Pagaya shares delivered a solid performance in the third quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s growth. While the stock outperformed its peer LendingClub (LC - Free Report) , it underperformed another peer LendingTree (TREE - Free Report) .
3Q25 PGY Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LendingClub released third-quarter results on Oct. 22, while LendingTree released results on Oct. 30.
PGY shares appear expensive relative to the industry. The stock is, at present, trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 4.19X. This is above the industry’s 3.35X.
Price-to-Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the PGY stock is trading at a premium compared with LendingClub, it is trading at a discount compared with LendingTree. At present, LendingTree has a P/B of 5.97X, while LendingClub’s P/B is 1.51X.
How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q3 Earnings?
Pagaya’s core strength lies in its resilient and adaptable business model. The company has been expanding beyond its original focus on personal loans, moving into auto lending and point-of-sale financing. This reduces exposure to cyclical risk in any single loan category, making the business more stable across economic cycles.
Additionally, Pagaya has been diversifying its funding sources. It has built a robust network of more than 135 institutional funding partners to support the sale of its asset-backed securities. The use of forward flow agreements to secure a predictable and stable capital source helps it mitigate liquidity risks, especially during periods of rising inflation and interest rates.
However, the stock is relatively expensive right now, which indicates that it carries a higher risk of a price drop and lower potential returns. Thus, investors should not rush to buy the stock now. They should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and policy matters that are likely to influence the company’s future performance.
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Pagaya Q3 Earnings on the Cards: A Smart Buy or Risky Bet?
Key Takeaways
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 10.
In the second quarter, PGY delivered a robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 30% year over year to a record $326 million. This was driven by a rise in revenues from fees. We believe the company to have recorded a similar performance this time. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $339 million, which implies a 31.9% year-over-year improvement.
In the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 62 cents. The estimate indicates 40.9% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pagaya does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 23.6%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Key Q3 Estimates for Pagaya
Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenue from fees is expected to have improved in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $330 million, indicating a 32.5% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.84 billion implies growth of 20.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects third-quarter 2025 network volume between $2.75 billion and $2.95 billion.
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the quarter.
Management expects total revenues and other income of $330-$350 million.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $90 million and $100 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $10 million and $20 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
Per our proven model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Pagaya will be able to beat earnings estimates this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PGY carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
PGY’s Price Performance & Valuation
Pagaya shares delivered a solid performance in the third quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s growth. While the stock outperformed its peer LendingClub (LC - Free Report) , it underperformed another peer LendingTree (TREE - Free Report) .
3Q25 PGY Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LendingClub released third-quarter results on Oct. 22, while LendingTree released results on Oct. 30.
PGY shares appear expensive relative to the industry. The stock is, at present, trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 4.19X. This is above the industry’s 3.35X.
Price-to-Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the PGY stock is trading at a premium compared with LendingClub, it is trading at a discount compared with LendingTree. At present, LendingTree has a P/B of 5.97X, while LendingClub’s P/B is 1.51X.
How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q3 Earnings?
Pagaya’s core strength lies in its resilient and adaptable business model. The company has been expanding beyond its original focus on personal loans, moving into auto lending and point-of-sale financing. This reduces exposure to cyclical risk in any single loan category, making the business more stable across economic cycles.
Additionally, Pagaya has been diversifying its funding sources. It has built a robust network of more than 135 institutional funding partners to support the sale of its asset-backed securities. The use of forward flow agreements to secure a predictable and stable capital source helps it mitigate liquidity risks, especially during periods of rising inflation and interest rates.
However, the stock is relatively expensive right now, which indicates that it carries a higher risk of a price drop and lower potential returns. Thus, investors should not rush to buy the stock now. They should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and policy matters that are likely to influence the company’s future performance.